How it's calculated
Customer lifetime value (LTV) estimates the gross profit an average customer brings in over the whole time they stay. For a subscription business it depends on three numbers: average revenue per account (ARPA) each month, gross margin, and churn. If the same share of customers leaves every month, the average customer stays 1 ÷ churn months.
The formula is the one David Skok published in his SaaS metrics guide: LTV = ARPA × gross margin % ÷ churn rate.David Skok, For Entrepreneurs
The formula
- Monthly margin per customer = ARPA × gross margin
- Average lifetime (months) = 1 ÷ monthly churn
- LTV = monthly margin per customer ÷ monthly churn = ARPA × gross margin ÷ churn
Worked example
A customer paying $100 a month at an 80% gross margin contributes $80 a month. At 2% monthly churn the average customer stays 50.0 months, so LTV is $4,000.
| Line | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue per customer per month (ARPA) | $100 |
| × gross margin (80%) | $80 |
| Expected lifetime (1 ÷ 2% churn) | 50 |
| Customer lifetime value (LTV) | $4,000 |
Cutting churn to 1% doubles the average lifetime and LTV to $8,000; raising ARPA to $120 at 2% churn gives $4,800.
Assumptions and limitations
- Constant ARPA and churn. Expansion revenue raises real LTV; churn that falls as customers age does too.
- No discounting. Margin earned years from now is worth less than margin today; with low churn the simple formula can give very long, uncertain lifetimes.
- Gross margin, not revenue. Revenue LTV (also shown) overstates what a customer is worth for comparing with acquisition cost; see the LTV:CAC calculator.